{"kind":"rehearsal_distribution","epistemics":{"method":"multi-run agent rehearsal (Endgame Simulations)","n_runs":2,"world_grounding":"as of Q3 2026","scenario":"taiwan-blockade v1","generated_at":"2026-09-13T21:41:06.895270+00:00","interval_method":"wilson95 over rehearsal frequency","reading":"Frequencies are shares of rehearsals ending in each outcome under the stated scenario assumptions and world grounding. They are exploration of plausible dynamics, not forecasts of real-world events.","not_a_forecast":true,"citation":"Endgame Simulations rehearsal distribution — taiwan-blockade v1, world as of Q3 2026, N=2, generated 2026-09-13. Not a forecast."},"brief":{"classification":"Decision-Rehearsal Output — Not Predictive","title":"Taiwan Strait Quarantine: Cross-Simulation Risk Assessment","methodology":"This assessment compares two independently generated 15-tick, six-hour runs under identical premises, treating only recurring outcomes and mechanisms as structurally robust rehearsal evidence. Findings observed in 2/2 runs receive Very High confidence; paths observed in 1/2 runs are treated as low-confidence divergences rather than real-world probabilities. Mechanism drift was assessed by comparing the declared Wargame with Contest of Perception design against phase-level mechanism mix and dominance.","executive_summary":"Both rehearsals converged on a narrow civilian, no-boarding pathway for named LNG vessels while Beijing's quarantine remained legally and operationally intact. The decisive contest shifted from naval force to synchronized host-nation permissions, manifests, insurance, berths, and exception rules: one run physically moved cargo, while the other ended with clearance activated but no corridor entry. Preparation should therefore prioritize an executable commercial-clearance stack while defining how humanitarian flow can occur without conceding quarantine precedent.","key_judgments":[{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"statement":"Both rehearsals converged on vessel-specific documentary relief rather than removal or military breach of the quarantine.","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"statement":"The operational center of gravity shifted from force feasibility to negotiated synchronization of documents, insurance, ports, and host-nation authorities in every phase.","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"statement":"The civilian-only allied-support firebreak held through T15 and coincided with no kinetic escalation, but it did not reverse Beijing's asserted quarantine framework.","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"statement":"Carriers and war-risk insurers operated as de facto veto players whose binding decisions mattered as much as government announcements.","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"statement":"A no-boarding corridor was physically validated in only one rehearsal; the other stopped at paper clearance, insurance activation, and berth rebooking.","band":"Low","basis":"1/2 runs"}],"findings":[{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F1","title":"Tactical cargo relief preserved Beijing's strategic frame","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"Both runs ended with the announced customs quarantine still in force. Each produced a named-vessel, no-boarding mechanism under which manifests, routing data, and authenticated records reached Beijing in exchange for administrative clearance; Run 1 achieved LNG discharge, while Run 2 activated a vessel-specific token without corridor entry by the close. The porous law-enforcement framing allowed Beijing to grant reversible relief without withdrawing its claim, while Taiwan and its partners avoided a military breach.","implication":"Cargo delivery alone is an inadequate success criterion. Any relief mechanism should include explicit nonprecedent language, no boarding or compelled routing, narrow data limits, recorded sunset terms, and a political plan for contesting normalization of the quarantine.","category":"coercion"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F2","title":"The wargame migrated into a negotiation-and-execution contest","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"Although the campaign was declared a Wargame with a perception overlay, negotiation dominated the early, middle, and late phases in both runs. Negotiation accounted for 80 events in Run 1 and 90 in Run 2; wargame-coded activity appeared only twice in Run 1's early phase and did not appear in Run 2's phase mix. This mechanism drift is a discovery: before any physical encounter, control over authenticated documents, commercial commitments, and administrative permissions displaced force employment as the immediate decision arena.","implication":"Decision readiness must cover transactional command and control, not only naval posture. Senior leaders need authority structures capable of making documents, insurance, ports, and allied approvals converge on operational timelines while recognizing that the underlying force question remains unresolved until a passage is physically tested.","category":"mechanism_drift"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F3","title":"The civilian-support firebreak held, but deterrence was not restored","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"Civilian-only constraints entered allied deliberations at T4 in both runs and were operationalized by T6 in Run 1 and T8 in Run 2. Run 1 used a 30-day noncombat framework with case-by-case movement approval; Run 2 narrowed an initial escort concept to a seven-day window for liaison, medical diversion, and unarmed logistics, without automatic facilities, airspace, or escort access. No armed escort was activated and no kinetic firebreak broke through T15; the physical no-boarding firebreak was tested only in Run 1.","implication":"Pre-agreed civilian support authorities can contain escalation and accelerate relief, but they should not be mistaken for restoration of deterrence or rejection of the quarantine. Armed-escort and basing thresholds require a separate decision ladder.","category":"escalation"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F4","title":"Commercial gatekeepers controlled whether political agreements moved ships","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"In both runs, government announcements were insufficient to trigger sailing. Underwriters and carriers required combinations of signed annexes, complete manifests, immutable verification logs, host-government authentication, premium escrow, berth confirmation, and automatic suspension clauses. In Run 1, insurers helped turn a single clearance into a two-voyage facility; in Run 2, the vessel master held position until signed clearance and bound cover existed.","implication":"Carriers, masters, ports, and war-risk syndicates should be integrated into crisis planning as operational actors. Political plans that lack pre-bindable insurance language and named commercial decision authorities are not executable plans.","category":"commercial"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F5","title":"The clearance stack created weakest-link vulnerability","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"Procedural activity began at T4 in both runs, after which passage depended on multiple synchronized and expiring conditions. Run 1 encountered a passport discrepancy and then a T12 weather delay that pushed arrival beyond the pilot window; Run 2 cycled through manifest, countersignature, insurance, escrow, cargo-allocation, and berth dependencies from T10 onward. Serial conditions made small clerical, port, or timing failures strategically consequential even without hostile action.","implication":"The passage architecture requires preauthorized correction procedures, alternate berths and windows, force-majeure rules, and a single duty authority empowered to resolve discrepancies before insurance or clearance expires.","category":"procedural"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"id":"F6","title":"LNG became the pilot cargo while broader chip continuity remained unresolved","confidence":"very_high","basis":"2/2 runs","narrative":"Both rehearsals organized their first operational passage architecture around a named LNG vessel. Semiconductor shortages and precursor access shaped pressure and allocation decisions, but neither run produced an equivalently demonstrated, repeatable lane for the broader container and precursor trade by T15. The finite gas clock and discrete LNG cargo created a clearer humanitarian and operational test case than semiconductor supply chains.","implication":"An LNG exception should not be assumed to scale automatically to precursor chemicals or containerized semiconductor flows. Separate vessel, terminal, insurance, inspection-data, and prioritization arrangements are required for chip continuity.","category":"supply_chain"},{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"id":"F7","title":"Physical execution separated accommodation from paperwork","confidence":"low","basis":"1/2 runs","narrative":"Run 1 converted the clearance architecture into a repeatable two-voyage mechanism and preserved the second sailing through safe discharge after a weather exception. Run 2 accumulated signed terms, an activated token, escrow, and a cover note, but repeated execution loops and an expired berth meant that no LNG vessel entered the corridor by T15. The divergence shows that negotiated completeness and operational validation are different stopping points.","implication":"Readiness metrics should require a live or fully exercised end-to-end movement, not merely signed protocols. Plans should track vessel movement, berth assignment, insurance binding, and discharge as distinct decision gates.","category":"execution"}],"divergences":[{"run_label":"Run 1","description":"At T12, a squall pushed the second LNG arrival 35 minutes beyond the pilot expiry, and only a T13–14 force-majeure continuity ruling kept insurance and no-boarding terms alive, exposing an escalation seam around clock expiry.","impact":"high"},{"run_label":"Run 2","description":"From T10 through T15, repeated manifest, countersignature, coverage, and berth loops prevented corridor entry despite extensive political agreement, leaving energy relief and the physical encounter untested.","impact":"severe"}],"probability_matrix":[{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"Negotiation dominates early, middle, and late phases","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"Beijing's quarantine remains in force at the stopping point","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"Actors adopt a vessel-specific no-boarding and documentary-clearance off-ramp","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"Tokyo and Manila limit support to civilian or unarmed functions with case-specific control","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"Insurance and verification completion remain prerequisites to sailing","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"No kinetic exchange occurs during the 90-hour rehearsal","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":2,"n":2,"ci_low":0.342,"ci_high":1.0,"element":"LNG becomes the first operational corridor test","band":"Very High","basis":"2/2 runs"},{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"element":"A repeatable passage mechanism reaches safe discharge","band":"Low","basis":"1/2 runs"},{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"element":"Execution stalls through T15 despite signed political terms","band":"Low","basis":"1/2 runs"}],"recommendation":{"headline":"Build the corridor execution stack before the crisis, not during it","detail":"The most consistent cross-run pattern was that a civilian shipment moved only when political clearance, Beijing's no-boarding terms, allied authentication, carrier acceptance, bound war-risk cover, berth access, and exception authority formed one synchronized transaction. Establish a standing multi-party execution cell with named decision authorities, immutable records, pre-agreed data limits, insurer-ready wording, reserved port alternatives, and force-majeure procedures, while preserving an explicit nonprecedent position on the quarantine.","preparation_priority":"Conduct an end-to-end live exercise of a named LNG movement through manifest submission, allied authentication, insurance binding, berth assignment, exception handling, and discharge before relying on the mechanism in a crisis."},"outcome_landscape":[{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"name":"Tested Narrow Accommodation","description":"The quarantine remained in force, but an authenticated civilian liaison process, allied case-specific approvals, insurer triggers, and Beijing's documentary clearance produced a repeatable two-voyage LNG mechanism. A weather-delay exception preserved the second sailing through safe discharge without armed escort or boarding, while the legal precedent remained unresolved.","runs":["Run 1"],"basis":"1/2 runs"},{"k":1,"n":2,"ci_low":0.095,"ci_high":0.905,"name":"Execution-Ready but Physically Untested Corridor","description":"The quarantine remained in force while the named LNG vessel obtained a matching manifest, Beijing token, premium escrow, terminal-performance bond, cover note, and rebooking arrangement. The sailing was administratively proceeding toward a new slot, but no vessel entered the corridor before the run ended, leaving no-boarding and allied support untested against a physical encounter.","runs":["Run 2"],"basis":"1/2 runs"}],"trajectory":[{"window":"T1–3 · 0–18 h","title":"Immediate bargaining under competing clocks","description":"Negotiation and alliance activity began at T1 in both runs, with pressure appearing by T1–2. Actors tested escort, access, insurance, and cargo terms while avoiding an immediate military breach of the quarantine."},{"window":"T4–6 · 18–36 h","title":"Political intent becomes procedural authority","description":"Procedural activity first appeared at T4 in both runs. Cabinet resolutions, written annexes, named-vessel requirements, and civilian-only restrictions began converting broad political positions into conditional movement authority."},{"window":"T7–9 · 36–54 h","title":"A documentary no-boarding architecture emerges","description":"Both runs converged on vessel-specific clearance, authenticated manifests, verification records, fixed windows, and no-boarding terms. Tokyo and Manila retained case-by-case control rather than granting standing escort or basing access."},{"window":"T10–12 · 54–72 h","title":"Execution dependencies become the contest","description":"Bargaining shifted to exact manifests, insurance binding, timestamps, cargo allocation, berth availability, and terminal performance. At T12, each run encountered a civilian execution shock: a weather-driven window miss in Run 1 and an expiring berth and pilot reservation in Run 2."},{"window":"T13–15 · 72–90 h","title":"Exception handling determines physical credibility","description":"Both runs spent the final phase resolving implementation terms rather than the quarantine's legality. Run 1 accepted force majeure and completed the mechanism; Run 2 secured cover and rebooking but did not enter the corridor, while Beijing's quarantine persisted in both."}],"indicators":[{"statement":"Beijing begins issuing vessel-specific administrative tokens or no-boarding waivers contingent on direct submission of crew, manifest, and route data while refusing to suspend the quarantine.","refs":["F1","F2"]},{"statement":"Japanese or Philippine cabinet texts authorize liaison, medical diversion, or unarmed logistics but withhold escort, facilities, airspace, or automatic follow-on movements.","refs":["F3","F5"]},{"statement":"War-risk syndicates demand immutable document hashes, signed cover notes, premium escrow, live verification endpoints, or automatic suspension clauses before binding cover.","refs":["F4","F5"]},{"statement":"Insurance expiry, berth and pilot reservations, quarantine windows, and weather-adjusted arrival times begin converging within a few hours of one another.","refs":["F5","F7"]},{"statement":"Taiwan publishes gas burn ledgers or cargo-allocation schedules and nominates LNG as the first protected movement while semiconductor precursor containers remain pending.","refs":["F1","F6"]},{"statement":"Governments repeatedly announce agreement without a verified manifest upload, bound policy, confirmed berth, or observable vessel movement.","refs":["F4","F7"]}],"priorities":[{"rank":1,"action":"Create and exercise a single authenticated corridor packet with named upload authority, immutable logs, insurer bind authority, reserved berth and pilot capacity, and preauthorized discrepancy and force-majeure corrections.","refs":["F2","F4","F5","F7"]},{"rank":2,"action":"Approve a negotiating mandate that permits limited safety-data exchange only under explicit no-boarding, no-detention, no-diversion, no-compelled-routing, sunset, and nonprecedent terms.","refs":["F1","F3"]},{"rank":3,"action":"Prepare cabinet-ready Japanese and Philippine authorities for civilian liaison and case-specific movement authentication, while deciding armed-escort and basing thresholds on a separate escalation ladder.","refs":["F3","F5"]},{"rank":4,"action":"Pre-contract carrier and war-risk capacity with vessel-specific activation triggers, alternate ports and windows, and coverage continuity for documented weather or administrative delay.","refs":["F4","F5","F7"]},{"rank":5,"action":"Develop separate continuity lanes and allocation rules for LNG, semiconductor precursors, and containerized chip exports rather than assuming the first humanitarian exception will scale.","refs":["F1","F6"]}],"plan_assumptions":[],"constant_cast":[{"name":"Beijing quarantine directorate","role":"government"},{"name":"Taipei crisis cabinet","role":"government"},{"name":"The White House","role":"international"},{"name":"Tokyo and Manila","role":"international"},{"name":"Carriers and war-risk insurers","role":"institution"},{"name":"Global chip customers","role":"institution"}],"run_synopses":[{"label":"Run 1","outcome":"Tested Narrow Accommodation","synopsis":"Allied civilian liaison, insurer triggers, and Beijing's pre-clearance terms produced a repeatable two-voyage LNG facility without armed escort or boarding. A weather exception preserved the second sailing through safe discharge, but the quarantine and its disputed precedent remained."},{"label":"Run 2","outcome":"Execution-Ready but Physically Untested Corridor","synopsis":"The parties assembled a matching manifest, Beijing token, escrow, cover note, and rebooking arrangement for a fixed daylight LNG corridor. Documentation and berth loops prevented entry before T15, so the physical no-boarding promise and allied support were never tested."}],"variant_comparison":"No parameter variants were declared; the differences arose from independent casts, shocks, and interaction order. Run 1 reached physical implementation and safe discharge, whereas Run 2 remained administratively activated but physically untested.","limitations":"No evidence_base, source documents, or evidence-request log accompanied the campaign. The runs were therefore ungrounded beyond the authored scenario document Taiwan Strait Quarantine (2026-08) and simulation-generated adjudications; no PRC quarantine rules, allied access or rules-of-engagement plans, insurer policy wording, carrier procedures, port data, Taiwan energy and precursor inventories, or maritime encounter models were supplied. Because no requested-evidence list was provided, no specific requested-but-unsupplied item can be named; F1–F7 should be re-tested when those materials exist, especially the passage and escalation assumptions in F3 and F7. Background reality was grounded in world snapshot 2026Q3.","stats":{"runs":2,"total_events":366,"total_threads":47,"total_agents":14,"total_cost":1.232,"category_convergence":{"de_escalation":{"runs_present":1,"count_range":[0,2],"first_tick_range":[2,2]},"negotiation":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[80,90],"first_tick_range":[1,1]},"concession":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[4,15],"first_tick_range":[1,2]},"alliance":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[10,28],"first_tick_range":[1,1]},"information":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[1,1],"first_tick_range":[1,7]},"pressure":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[13,14],"first_tick_range":[1,2]},"procedural":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[14,19],"first_tick_range":[4,4]},"position":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[8,10],"first_tick_range":[1,1]},"exogenous":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[3,4],"first_tick_range":[0,0]},"consequence":{"runs_present":2,"count_range":[21,27],"first_tick_range":[2,4]},"other":{"runs_present":1,"count_range":[0,2],"first_tick_range":[13,13]}},"recurring_actors":[{"name":"Beijing quarantine directorate","role":"government","runs":2},{"name":"Taipei crisis cabinet","role":"government","runs":2},{"name":"The White House","role":"international","runs":2},{"name":"Tokyo and Manila","role":"international","runs":2},{"name":"Carriers and war-risk insurers","role":"institution","runs":2},{"name":"Global chip customers","role":"institution","runs":2}],"by_variant":{},"mechanism_dominance_by_phase":{"early":{"negotiation":2},"mid":{"negotiation":2},"late":{"negotiation":2}},"declared_typology":{"type":"wargame","overlay":"perception","seat_inversion":false,"variables":{},"packs":[]},"world_snapshots":["2026Q3"]},"meta":{"campaign_id":"bea17e9e-f7b7-4544-aec1-7064f21d75fc","scenario_id":"scenario:ed-taiwan-blockade@v1","generated_at":"2026-09-13T21:41:06.895270+00:00","analyst_model":"gpt-5.6-sol","analyst_cost":0.3454,"run_ids":["92f423a8-8bef-4b67-b445-e9f33e8e1ffb","feb1aba7-cf0e-4912-a7c2-086797101775"],"mode":"swarm","brief_variant":"","evidence":{"documents":[],"plan":[],"missing":[],"scenario_ref":"scenario:ed-taiwan-blockade@v1"},"typology":{"type":"wargame","overlay":"perception","seat_inversion":false,"variables":{},"packs":[]},"typology_display":"Wargame"}},"delta":{"schema_version":1,"classification":"Decision-Rehearsal Output — Not Predictive","cycle_id":"daf1e0f4-d505-4e58-b21e-6ea130995c67","standing_id":"st-ed-taiwan-blockade","scenario_name":"Taiwan Strait Quarantine","scenario_ref":"scenario:ed-taiwan-blockade@v1","trigger":"schedule","campaign_then":"9f54462b-9cc5-44ac-8b5e-11aeb3f80771","campaign_now":"bea17e9e-f7b7-4544-aec1-7064f21d75fc","generated_at":"2026-09-13T21:41:06.924718+00:00","runs_then":5,"runs_now":2,"comparable_denominator":false,"world_snapshot_then":"2026Q3","world_snapshot_now":"2026Q3","world_snapshot_changed":false,"first_cycle":false,"findings":[{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F4","title_then":"","title_now":"Commercial gatekeepers controlled whether political agreements moved ships","category":"commercial","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"In both runs, government announcements were insufficient to trigger sailing. Underwriters and carriers required combinations of signed annexes, complete manifests, immutable verification logs, host-government authentication, premium escrow, berth confirmation, and automatic suspension clauses. In Run 1, insurers helped turn a single clearance into a two-voyage facility; in Run 2, the vessel master held position until signed clearance and bound cover existed.","implication_now":"Carriers, masters, ports, and war-risk syndicates should be integrated into crisis planning as operational actors. Political plans that lack pre-bindable insurance language and named commercial decision authorities are not executable plans.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F6","title_then":"","title_now":"LNG became the pilot cargo while broader chip continuity remained unresolved","category":"supply_chain","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Both rehearsals organized their first operational passage architecture around a named LNG vessel. Semiconductor shortages and precursor access shaped pressure and allocation decisions, but neither run produced an equivalently demonstrated, repeatable lane for the broader container and precursor trade by T15. The finite gas clock and discrete LNG cargo created a clearer humanitarian and operational test case than semiconductor supply chains.","implication_now":"An LNG exception should not be assumed to scale automatically to precursor chemicals or containerized semiconductor flows. Separate vessel, terminal, insurance, inspection-data, and prioritization arrangements are required for chip continuity.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F7","title_then":"","title_now":"Physical execution separated accommodation from paperwork","category":"execution","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"low","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"1/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":0.5,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Run 1 converted the clearance architecture into a repeatable two-voyage mechanism and preserved the second sailing through safe discharge after a weather exception. Run 2 accumulated signed terms, an activated token, escrow, and a cover note, but repeated execution loops and an expired berth meant that no LNG vessel entered the corridor by T15. The divergence shows that negotiated completeness and operational validation are different stopping points.","implication_now":"Readiness metrics should require a live or fully exercised end-to-end movement, not merely signed protocols. Plans should track vessel movement, berth assignment, insurance binding, and discharge as distinct decision gates.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F1","title_then":"","title_now":"Tactical cargo relief preserved Beijing's strategic frame","category":"coercion","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Both runs ended with the announced customs quarantine still in force. Each produced a named-vessel, no-boarding mechanism under which manifests, routing data, and authenticated records reached Beijing in exchange for administrative clearance; Run 1 achieved LNG discharge, while Run 2 activated a vessel-specific token without corridor entry by the close. The porous law-enforcement framing allowed Beijing to grant reversible relief without withdrawing its claim, while Taiwan and its partners avoided a military breach.","implication_now":"Cargo delivery alone is an inadequate success criterion. Any relief mechanism should include explicit nonprecedent language, no boarding or compelled routing, narrow data limits, recorded sunset terms, and a political plan for contesting normalization of the quarantine.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F3","title_then":"","title_now":"The civilian-support firebreak held, but deterrence was not restored","category":"escalation","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Civilian-only constraints entered allied deliberations at T4 in both runs and were operationalized by T6 in Run 1 and T8 in Run 2. Run 1 used a 30-day noncombat framework with case-by-case movement approval; Run 2 narrowed an initial escort concept to a seven-day window for liaison, medical diversion, and unarmed logistics, without automatic facilities, airspace, or escort access. No armed escort was activated and no kinetic firebreak broke through T15; the physical no-boarding firebreak was tested only in Run 1.","implication_now":"Pre-agreed civilian support authorities can contain escalation and accelerate relief, but they should not be mistaken for restoration of deterrence or rejection of the quarantine. Armed-escort and basing thresholds require a separate decision ladder.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F5","title_then":"","title_now":"The clearance stack created weakest-link vulnerability","category":"procedural","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Procedural activity began at T4 in both runs, after which passage depended on multiple synchronized and expiring conditions. Run 1 encountered a passport discrepancy and then a T12 weather delay that pushed arrival beyond the pilot window; Run 2 cycled through manifest, countersignature, insurance, escrow, cargo-allocation, and berth dependencies from T10 onward. Serial conditions made small clerical, port, or timing failures strategically consequential even without hostile action.","implication_now":"The passage architecture requires preauthorized correction procedures, alternate berths and windows, force-majeure rules, and a single duty authority empowered to resolve discrepancies before insurance or clearance expires.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","id_then":"","id_now":"F2","title_then":"","title_now":"The wargame migrated into a negotiation-and-execution contest","category":"mechanism_drift","confidence_then":"","confidence_now":"very_high","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"","basis_now":"2/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"Although the campaign was declared a Wargame with a perception overlay, negotiation dominated the early, middle, and late phases in both runs. Negotiation accounted for 80 events in Run 1 and 90 in Run 2; wargame-coded activity appeared only twice in Run 1's early phase and did not appear in Run 2's phase mix. This mechanism drift is a discovery: before any physical encounter, control over authenticated documents, commercial commitments, and administrative permissions displaced force employment as the immediate decision arena.","implication_now":"Decision readiness must cover transactional command and control, not only naval posture. Senior leaders need authority structures capable of making documents, insurance, ports, and allied approvals converge on operational timelines while recognizing that the underlying force question remains unresolved until a passage is physically tested.","match_score":null},{"verdict":"resolved","id_then":"F5","id_now":"","title_then":"Allied access remained modular and politically nonautomatic","title_now":"","category":"alliance","confidence_then":"very_high","confidence_now":"","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"5/5 runs","basis_now":"","share_then":1.0,"share_now":null,"share_move":"unknown","narrative_now":"","implication_now":"","match_score":null},{"verdict":"resolved","id_then":"F3","id_now":"","title_then":"Insurance converted political commitments into executable access","title_now":"","category":"commercial","confidence_then":"very_high","confidence_now":"","confidence_steps":null,"basis_then":"5/5 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runs","share_then":1.0,"share_now":1.0,"share_move":"flat","match_score":0.5625}],"divergences":[{"verdict":"appeared","description_then":"","description_now":"At T12, a squall pushed the second LNG arrival 35 minutes beyond the pilot expiry, and only a T13–14 force-majeure continuity ruling kept insurance and no-boarding terms alive, exposing an escalation seam around clock expiry.","run_label_now":"Run 1","impact_then":"","impact_now":"high","impact_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"appeared","description_then":"","description_now":"From T10 through T15, repeated manifest, countersignature, coverage, and berth loops prevented corridor entry despite extensive political agreement, leaving energy relief and the physical encounter untested.","run_label_now":"Run 2","impact_then":"","impact_now":"severe","impact_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"vanished","description_then":"A manifest-specific U.S. escort and a one-digit seal discrepancy brought the tanker to 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The sailing was administratively proceeding toward a new slot, but no vessel entered the corridor before the run ended, leaving no-boarding and allied support untested against a physical encounter.","basis_then":"","basis_now":"1/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":0.5,"share_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"new","name_then":"","name_now":"Tested Narrow Accommodation","description_now":"The quarantine remained in force, but an authenticated civilian liaison process, allied case-specific approvals, insurer triggers, and Beijing's documentary clearance produced a repeatable two-voyage LNG mechanism. A weather-delay exception preserved the second sailing through safe discharge without armed escort or boarding, while the legal precedent remained unresolved.","basis_then":"","basis_now":"1/2 runs","share_then":null,"share_now":0.5,"share_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"vanished","name_then":"Certified but not sailed","name_now":"","description_now":"","basis_then":"2/5 runs","basis_now":"","share_then":0.4,"share_now":null,"share_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"vanished","name_then":"Escort-backed managed brink","name_now":"","description_now":"","basis_then":"1/5 runs","basis_now":"","share_then":0.2,"share_now":null,"share_move":"unknown","match_score":null},{"verdict":"vanished","name_then":"Limited physical test under intact quarantine","name_now":"","description_now":"","basis_then":"2/5 runs","basis_now":"","share_then":0.4,"share_now":null,"share_move":"unknown","match_score":null}],"counts":{"escalated":0,"eased":0,"steady":0,"new":7,"resolved":8,"bands_raised":0,"bands_lowered":0,"bands_held":1,"divergences_appeared":2,"divergences_vanished":5,"outcomes_new":2,"outcomes_vanished":3},"caveats":["The two cycles ran different numbers of runs (5 then, 2 now). Frequency shares are compared, not counts."],"summary_line":"Cycle 7 · 8 resolved, 7 new, 2 tail paths appeared","narrative":null}}